Which parts of Blagoevgrad are most vulnerable to extreme heat, and where is the risk to people highest?
These are the questions answered by the new vulnerability map developed under the HEATSAFE project. As Partner No. 5 in the project, the Association of South-Western Municipalities (ASWM) is providing the map to its associated partners - the Municipality of Blagoevgrad and the Blagoevgrad Regional Administration - to support future planning of adaptation measures.
Building on the earlier analysis of the pilot municipalities' readiness (see the previous publication), the project's international consortium developed a heat vulnerability map for each of the six pilot territories, including Blagoevgrad. While the analysis showed what tools and practices the country has in place overall, the map answers a more specific question - exactly which parts of the municipality, and which groups of residents, face the greatest risk when temperatures rise.
To produce the map, two types of information were combined. On one hand, the air temperature across different parts of the municipality was simulated during a real heatwave in July 2023. On the other, an analysis was carried out of which areas are home to more vulnerable residents, taking into account the age structure of the population, the condition of buildings, access to green spaces and air conditioning, distance to hospitals, and income levels.
The result shows not simply where it gets hottest, but where heat poses the greatest real danger to residents. For Blagoevgrad, the map highlights the central urban area as the highest-risk zone, where intense heat and higher social vulnerability overlap. The municipality's outskirts and rural areas turn out to be less at risk overall, though temperatures there vary far more widely, since the territory spans everything from the urban core to sparsely populated peri-urban settlements.
A distinctive feature of Blagoevgrad, unlike some of the other pilot municipalities in the project, is that both the intensity of the heat and the vulnerability of the population contribute almost equally to overall risk. This means future measures need to address both factors together, rather than one alone.
The map now gives the Municipality of Blagoevgrad and its partner institutions a concrete starting point - it is known which areas need climate shelters and shaded spaces, where emergency teams should be directed during extreme heat, and where health and social services should focus their attention. Building on the analysis and the map, a catalogue of specific measures has also been developed, which municipalities can apply according to the needs identified in their territory, and which is now available HERE.
The full map and its methodology are available here (in English).
